Predicting introductions and range expansions of the monk parakeet with ecological niche modeling and landscape genetics
Item
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Title
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Predicting introductions and range expansions of the monk parakeet with ecological niche modeling and landscape genetics
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Identifier
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d_2009_2013:b6cca2a0510c:11977
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identifier
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12649
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Creator
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Bohl, Corentin Luc,
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Contributor
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Jason Munshi-South
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Date
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2013
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Ecology | Conservation biology | Landscape Resistance | MaxEnt | Monk Parakeet | Niche Modeling | Null Models
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Abstract
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The ability to predict species future geographic distributions is an important challenge in biogeography and conservation biology, with critical implications for pressing environmental issues, including the potential spread of invasive species. This research examines a two-step framework to build accurate predictions of the invasive potential of the monk parakeet ( Myiopsitta monachus). This species, native to temperate South-America, has established several stable populations worldwide, and shares many of the typical traits of high-risk invaders. The proposed framework aims to 1) identify areas where the species is likely to thrive, and 2) determine which of these suitable areas the species can likely disperse to. Objective 1 requires identifying the environmental conditions suitable to the species, for which I used ecological niche modeling (Chapter 1 & 2). Objective 2 addresses the ability of the species to conquer new adjacent favorable areas via dispersal, a problem that can be addressed with landscape genetics (Chapter 3). In Chapter 1, I developed a null model approach to evaluate the performance and significance of ecological niche models. The results highlight the importance of accounting for both discrimination and overfitting and correctly estimating significance. In Chapter 2, I tested the effect of different model calibration strategies on transferability (the ability to predict independent data in different geographic regions). I used this information to make predictions about the global invasive potential of the monk parakeet. The best prediction was obtained with native calibration records and complex model settings. This prediction indicates several areas with conditions suitable for monk parakeets, including areas adjacent to existing introduced populations. In Chapter 3, I integrated ecological niche modeling and landscape genetics to make predictions about the landscape features that affect monk parakeet dispersal. I tested these predictions with genetic data from an introduced population in Florida, and assessed their significance with null models. Estimating resistance to dispersal with ecological niche modeling produced results equivalent to evaluating a range of alternative hypotheses with a stepwise regression model. The results indicate that monk parakeet may not be limited by distance and most landscape features and are likely to expand to adjacent suitable areas.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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2009_2013.csv
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degree
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Ph.D.
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Program
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Biology
