AN ASSESSMENT OF CHILDHOOD AND ADULTHOOD FACTORS AS PREDICTORS OF VIOLENT CRIMINALITY AMONG A MALE POPULATION (DANGEROUSNESS, NEW YORK).
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Title
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AN ASSESSMENT OF CHILDHOOD AND ADULTHOOD FACTORS AS PREDICTORS OF VIOLENT CRIMINALITY AMONG A MALE POPULATION (DANGEROUSNESS, NEW YORK).
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Identifier
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AAI8423100
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identifier
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8423100
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Creator
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SANCHEZ, JOSE EMILIO.
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Contributor
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Edward Sagarin
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Date
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1984
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Sociology, Criminology and Penology
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Abstract
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Longitudinal data were collected on 165 lower class, urban males who between 1950 and 1960 were adjudicated juvenile delinquents and interned at the Wiltwyck School for Boys in New York State. Employing case history materials and criminal justice records, this study set out to discern a set of factors which would identify the most dangerous offenders among this high risk population. Childhood and adult factors were examined in turn and together using stepwise regression and tabular analyses. It was found that childhood variables were consistently more powerful predictors of dangerousness than adult factors other than age and a record of previous criminal violence. Using procedures to measure the extent to which these factors were better predictors than chance alone, five key variables were derived. Negative labeling as a child, a record of serious juvenile delinquency, prior incarceration, being under age 30, and a record of previous criminal violence were significantly better than chance in predicting dangerousness among this high risk group; family related variables were found to be no better than chance alone. However, the best dispositional factors accounted for only a small amount of the variance in the dependent variables. Young age and a record of criminal violence were by far the best predictors. The study supported current knowledge regarding the inability to accurately predict dangerousness, even among a population with a high base-rate of violence. The findings point to the need to extend the current focus on the dangerous offender to situational variables and to the interaction between biography and situation in addition to dispositional predictors.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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PQT Legacy CUNY.xlsx
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degree
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Ph.D.
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Program
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Sociology
