DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 1980 CENSUS OF POPULATION (DEMOGRAPHY, HOUSEHOLD-PRODUCTION).
Item
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Title
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DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 1980 CENSUS OF POPULATION (DEMOGRAPHY, HOUSEHOLD-PRODUCTION).
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Identifier
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AAI8501139
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identifier
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8501139
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Creator
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HOROWITZ, AVERY M.
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Contributor
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Michael Grossman
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Date
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1984
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Economics, Labor
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Abstract
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This paper explores the demand for children in the United States by analyzing race-specific SMSA grouped data taken from the 1980 Census of Population.;Starting with Malthus, the paper discusses the different major theories of fertility. The development of modern fertility theory is traced through Becker's landmark 1960 article, Mincer's contributions (the opportunity cost of time, relative income) and Becker's 1965 theory of household production. Some key issues (quality vs. quantity, income effects, the use of static models) are then explored. The paper then surveys some of the major alternatives to the Becker model--Leibenstein, Easterlin, Turchi, etc.;The second part of the paper looks in detail at the variables that affect fertility in a developed country. The variables explored include various measures of income, female labor market activity, education, the quality of children, tastes, degree of urbanization, infant mortality, abortion, and the costs of contraception.;Finally, the paper explores the empirical results of regressions run using all 318 SMSA's for whites and 225 SMSA's for blacks. Despite differences in fertility rates, the same factors prove to be significant determinants of fertility for both races.;Female earnings consistently showed up as a significant variable with the expected negative coefficient. This reflects the importance of the opportunity cost of a woman's time spent in childraising. Overall family income, however, generally proved to be statistically insignificant.;The percentage of females who were high school graduates proved to be statistically significant with an unexpected positive sign for whites and the expected negative sign for blacks.;The other statistically significant variables in this study were industrial structure, the female unemployment rate, the percentage foreign born, and the percentage Hispanic. In almost all specifications of the model, the "quality of children" tended to be statistically insignificant.;The study also includes regressions that limited the sample to each of the four census regions of the country and to the 50 largest SMSA's in the country. In addition, regressions were run with "quality of children" as the dependent variable.;The study tends to confirm and add important evidence to the argument that the demand for children can be analyzed using a traditional neoclassical approach as in the household production model.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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PQT Legacy CUNY.xlsx
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degree
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Ph.D.
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Program
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Economics
