The determinants of the probability of promotion.
Item
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Title
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The determinants of the probability of promotion.
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Identifier
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AAI8820872
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identifier
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8820872
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Creator
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Kaestner, Robert John.
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Contributor
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Adviser: Michael Grossman
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Date
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1988
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Economics, Labor
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Abstract
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This paper is a detailed empirical analysis of promotions among the professional ranks of a large U.S. manufacturing firm. A model based upon the existence of an internal labor market and multi-period employment contracts is utilized to examine the determinants of the probability of promotion among this group of employees. As an innovation, this research introduces into the mode the possiblity of unanticipated costs (to the firm) of promotion, and tests whether this phenomena is an important aspect of the promotion process in the firm under study.;There is also an extensive empirical agenda guiding this analysis which concentrates on the following areas: (1) Identifying the relative importance of general versus specific training in the promotion process. (2) Identifying the separate contributions of performance (productivity) and seniority in determining who is promoted. (3) Testing for the possible bias due to sample attrition. (4) Testing for differential treatments of various race and gender groups.;The results of this analysis indicate that the primary determinants of promotion, for this group of employees, in this firm are: an employee's position in the job hierarchy, an employee's current performance, the accumulated seniority of the employee and in some instances what functional group the employee is apart of in the firm. Further results show that seniority and specific job training dominate current performance at lower level jobs, in regard to the probability of being promoted, and for higher level positions the reverse is true. There does not appear to be much value placed upon previous work experience or general training when choosing employees for promotion.;Tests for discrimination on the basis of sex or race illustrated that the firm is not a discriminator and the possible bias due to sample attrition was shown not to be present. It was also the case that unanticipated costs of promotion are not manifest and it is concluded that they are not relevant in the firm under study.;In summary this research provides a unique look at a representative firm in today's labor market. A careful and extensive empirical analysis illustrated several important aspects of the promotion process for professional employees.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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PQT Legacy CUNY.xlsx
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degree
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Ph.D.
