Three essays in applied time-series analysis.
Item
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Title
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Three essays in applied time-series analysis.
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Identifier
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AAI9009764
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identifier
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9009764
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Creator
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Mocan, Naci Huseyin.
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Contributor
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Adviser: Michael Grossman
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Date
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1989
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Economics, General | Sociology, Demography
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Abstract
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This thesis consists of three essays which use time series techniques to analyze the relationships between macroeconomic, and demographic variables. The first essay, using Vector-Autoregressions, demonstrates that an increase in the proportion of young marriages does not increase the divorce rate if the model includes labor force participation and fertility. On the other hand, in a model, which omits labor force participation and fertility, a shock to the proportion of young marriages increases the divorce rate, implying that the often reported inverse relationship between age at marriage and divorce is not causal. Rather, it is an artifact of underlying relationships between labor force participation and fertility.;The second paper sheds light onto the conflicting findings of previous research on real wage cyclicality. Using Vector-Autoregressions between output, money supply, unemployment, real wages, relative price of oil, and productivity, it is shown that the shocks in aggregate supply produce procyclical real wages, whether the nominal wage is deflated by the wholesale price index or the consumer price index. On the other hand, shocks in aggregate demand generate countercyclical behavior of real wages, when the real wage is measured as the ratio of nominal wage rate to the wholesale price index. However, if the nominal wage is deflated by the consumer price index, aggregate demand shocks yield movement in the same direction of output and real wages.;The third essay, using an Interrupted Time Series Analysis, estimates the change in adolescent childbearing that followed the liberalization of the New York State abortion law in 1970. It is found that the level of births to black adolescents fell 18.7 percent between 1970 and 1971, or approximately 142 fewer births per month. The level of white births fell 14.1 percent, or approximately 111 fewer births per month. The forecasts yield that if abortion were banned January 1, 1989, there would have been 2143 Black births, and 1067 White births to NYC adolescents in 1988 and 1989 above what would have been expected had the law remained unchanged. The total marginal cost supporting the births to the mothers with AFDC eligibility would be 11.5 million dollars.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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PQT Legacy CUNY.xlsx
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degree
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Ph.D.
