The effects of commercial policies on the trade balance in a general equilibrium model (a case study of Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados, and Guyana).
Item
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Title
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The effects of commercial policies on the trade balance in a general equilibrium model (a case study of Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados, and Guyana).
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Identifier
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AAI9510714
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identifier
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9510714
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Creator
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Sangster, Donald B.
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Contributor
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Adviser: Michael Grossman
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Date
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1994
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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City University of New York.
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Subject
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Economics, General | Economics, Theory
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Abstract
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This dissertation uses a model developed by Kenneth W. Clements (1977) to test the effects of such policies as devaluation of the local curriencies, tariffs on imports, and money creation policies on various model endogenous variables such as exports, imports, the average price level and the trade balance. The model was first estimated using data for four small Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados and Guyana. The model was then used to simulate policy experiments, initiated by changes in relevant exogenous variables.;The model was found to be reasonably accurate in capturing the main trends for endogenous variables but there were problems. It appeared to be more accurate predicting the demand side of the model rather than supply, with the exception of absorption. Secondly, it appears that the existence in all four countries, of trade rigidities such as quotas and import restrictions further impair the model's prediction of the trade balance. Lastly since aggregate resource endowment (the model's employment variable) was designated as an exogenous variable, the effect of policy experiments on employment was indeterminate and will be explored in future research.
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Type
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dissertation
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Source
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PQT Legacy CUNY.xlsx
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degree
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Ph.D.
